A Lot on the Line for Betting Underdog Pereira at UFC 320
Tonight's star-studded UFC 320 event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas features a double title bout, the most intriguing of which pits No. 1-ranked Alex Pereira against light heavyweight champion Magomed Ankalaev.
The Underdog, Pereira
After the Russian defeated Pereira in a unanimous decision at UFC 313 in March of last year, Pereira has a chance to reclaim his title and exact some revenge.
In the other title fight, Georgian Merab Dvalishvili defends his bantamweight title against American Cory Sandhagen.
Pereira is the underdog at +210, Ankalaev at -275, and this fight is the most popular (tickets), followed by Dvalishvili (-425) and Sandhagen (+310), Khalil Rountree Jr. (+165) versus Jiri Prochazka (-200), Joo Sang Yoo (+135) versus Daniel Santos (-165) in a catchweight match in the preliminary round, and Josh Emmett (+360) versus Youssef Zalal (-500), back on the main card.
Retaliation Following UFC 313 defeat
Pereira by KO/TKO or DQ +300, Pereira by Decision/Technical Decision +900, Rountree by KO/TKO or DQ +300, Dvalishvili by Submission +700, and Sandhagen by Submission +2500 are the most popular bet props (tickets) at BetMGM.
Many analysts predicted Pereira would outgun Ankalaev at UFC 313 and do so fast, according to Mark Collier, a trader with BetVictor.
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Dvalishvili Big Betting Favourite
“Bout betting that night was -138 Alex with the Over 2.5 line a pick’em bet, almost 7 months later, we see Alex a +175 dog with the pick’em bet for Total Rounds being 4.5,” he said. “This is nothing but a testament to the Ankalaev performance that night with experts now unsurprisingly envisaging another Magomed 5-round masterclass.
“Predictable betting is somewhat an occupational hazard in our line of work but it’s also another thing we can exploit or take advantage of. Do I expect an Ankalaev Decision again? Personally, I think it goes the other way. Hear me out, this is surely Pereira’s last real chance at Light Heavyweight with failure on Saturday likely forcing his hand and making him jump up to Heavyweight. The last six months after recovery should be about him neutralising Magomed Ankalaev but I really don’t see how he can sustain this.
Pereira’s Last Big Chance
“Magomed maybe didn’t have full success in every round in March but he knows how to outmanoeuvre Alex now so if Pereira wants to get the job done, he needs to find a way of getting the KO/TKO and early. The longer this fight goes on, then it goes in favour of Ankalaev. This isn’t a bold observation with the AP KO/TKO line being around +300 in Vegas but I’d be taking this line instead of Pereira to win the Bout.
“To summarise – the make or break feel to the bout will likely make Alex Pereira a more dangerous opponent.”
Pereira via KO/TKO/DQ, at +210 this morning, is preferred by Collier.
A Major Underdog, Sandhagen
With the more worthy Petr Yan (ranked third) and Umar Nurmagomedov (ranked second) in the 135-pound class, Collier questioned why Sandhagen, ranked fourth, was given a chance.
“I really don’t see how Sandhagen can lay a glove on Merab in this one,” he said. “I always try to find justification for alternative scenarios in significant bouts or title fights but in a very similar fashion to how Sandhagen lost to Aljamain Sterling over five years ago, I can see Dvalishvili making very short work of Cory and bagging an early Submission.
“All roads lead to a Merab Decision Win with 12 out of his 15 previous UFC bouts ending in Decision (three of these being over five rounds) but a MD Decision is trading around 1/2 which I can’t take at that price.”
